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For a limited time, we are freely demonstrating our new prototype solar-xray flare prediction product. A fully operational version is available from our Solar Irradiance Platform
This new additional to our highly successful operational Solar Irradiance Platform which provides real-time predictions of solar flares every 5-10 minutes, based on data from the GOES 0.1-0.8 nm X-ray flux data. The past 3-days of X-ray flux and prediction history is displayed with the predicted peak flux and the evolution flare decay times as soon as a flare is detected. In addition, predicted space weather-related impacts are updated, which affect communication, navigation, LEO and GEO spacecraft systems. Following is an example of the comparsion of data with predictions during high solar activity:
The flare evolution prediction model results (blue lines) compared with actual 1-minute GOES XUV 0.1-0.8 data for November 2-5, 2003 during a period of active solar activity. There are multiple predictions (using a 5-minute sliding window) for the historical 72-hour data. The flare and data values for every minute are shown, but the flares are calculated with data from a sliding 5-minute window to reduce processing time during operations. Since the plots are updated every 1 minute on the users web browser using data from SEC at about a 2-minute cadence, there will often be slight differences between successive plots from minute to minute as the 72-hour historical flares are calculated with slightly different dXhf/dt derived values. The current epoch is on the figure right edge.
The Daily X-ray Background and Flare Indices
A new technique for determining the background X-ray 0.1-0.8 nm flux, and the flares above a background, has been developed for space weather applications. The daily minimum background, Xb10, showing intermediate term active region evolution and the hourly flare index, Xhf, showing flare shapes, can provide new insights in solar physics research and be useful for operational predictions as well. X-rays are an important source for ionization in the D-region of the ionosphere, affecting radio communication, GPS operations, and other technological systems. To the extent soft X-ray (XUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) solar irradiances are correlated with X-ray irradiance, thermospheric heating can be better estimated, and this has important implications to satellite drag and other operations. Since many geomagnetic indices and operational requirements use one-hour and daily indices, the Xb10 and Xhf daily and hourly indices can provide a valuable research and operational tool. Both near real-time indices are available from our Products web page under the Photons/Current_indices links. A detailed description of the indices is available as an SET Technical Report.
Last Update: 16 Jan 2009
